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Modest cement consumption growth expected for 2012, greater growth beyond
Stronger than expected job creation and the beginning of a construction industry recovery means gains in real construction spending will materialize this year after seven years of consecutive declines. According to the new forecast from the Portland Cement Association (PCA), increases in cement consumption will follow.
PCA revised its fall forecast upward, anticipating a modest 3.7 percent increase in 2012, followed by a 7.6 percent jump in 2013 and a 14.1 percent increase in 2014.
The forecast includes marginal improvements to nonresidential construction, an upward revision to housing starts and an aggressive cement intensity gain, which is the amount of cement used per real dollar of construction activity.
With successive years of economic and employment growth, the structural issues facing the construction industry will diminish, Sullivan said. For example, foreclosures’ adverse impact will fade, and return on investment for nonresidential investments will improve. Partially because of these improvements, state deficits will eventually be replaced by surpluses.
PCA forecasts all sectors of construction to be positive during 2014-2015, which typically results in large gains in cement consumption.